09 Sep 2022 Howard Marks Memo: The Illusion of Knowledge ( Portfolio )

There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.

The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge.

It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble.  It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.

Forecasts usually tell us more of the forecaster than of the future.